Another update to a story I've been following very closely, which is how many people have already had COVID-19 but have not been tested due to being asymptomatic. This study from LA County is right in line with other studies in Santa Clara, Colorado and The Netherlands. All 4 of these studies did antibody tests on people who had never been tested, with results in all cases indicating roughly 3% of people have already had the virus. This represents anywhere from a 28-80x increase in the actual number of cases, compared to what's been reported.

Whilst this means that the virus has spread even further than initially thought, perhaps more importantly it also means the virus is exponentially less fatal than all models suggested. If we use this data to estimate what this could mean for Canada, if those same numbers held true (which they may or may not), that would mean over 1M in Canada could already have the virus, thus making the fatality rate of those who are infected 0.1% rather than the 4.5% that's currently reported based on official case numbers.

Whilst this is all unofficial of course, and currently no antibody studies have been done in Canada to my knowledge (which should absolutely be done as a matter of priority), the fact each study in 4 different places are producing very similar results is worth taking significant note of. I know this is probably a taboo thing to say for some reason, but this site is about facts and data... If the numbers discussed here were true, it would actually mean that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is actually in line with the seasonal flu (0.1%). Again, early days yet but we have to consider all data as it comes in and react appropriately.

Food for thought


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