To build on the report shared yesterday, 2 more studies find significant portion of people tested for COVID-19 antibodies, do in fact have them confirming suspicions that the rate of infection is far higher than reported cases. This also means the virus is far less deadly than initially thought.
In Chelsea, Massachusetts, a staggering 32% of 200 people tested, had antibodies but never got tested due to not having any, or significant symptoms. Another study in Colorado reveals 0.8-3.1% of 986 antibody tests produced a positive result. These figures are in line with the results reported yesterday out of Santa Clara California where 3330 people were tested where 2.5-4.2% were found to have the antibodies.
If we applied the low end of these results to Canada, just for arguments sake, here is what we would find:
As of today, Canada reports about 32000 cases and 1310 deaths. This suggests a fatality rate of 4% but would presume all cases have been reported. Let's now assume 1% of the rest of the population has in fact already been infected but is essentially asymptomatic. This would mean a total of approximately 375000 people have actually been infected, which would reduce the fatality rate to 0.3%, thus increasing the chances of survival for anyone who contracts the disease from 96% to 99.7%.
Of course, as stated yesterday, these are very early tests, and currently only in the US so these are all just possibilities, but it's important to get as much information out there as possible as ultimately this information is what should be leading the important decisions that we have to make in the days and weeks ahead.